Olympic Long Jumps

The modern Olympic Games, a modified revival of the ancient Greek Olympian Games, were
inaugurated in 1896. Since then, the Games have been held nearly every four years at various sites
around the world, and have become a major international athletic competition.
Based on the gold medal distances shown, write a report about the men’s long jump. In your report
be sure to:

include appropriate graphical and numerical analyses;

discuss the trend in long jump performances, based on
an appropriate linear model;

explain the decisions you made in creating your model,
with some historical analysis of gaps in the data and
departures from the trend;

predict the distance that will win the gold medal in the
men’s long jump in the 2008 Games in Beijing, with
comments on your faith in that prediction.
YEAR DISTANCE
(inches)
1896 249.75
1900 282.875
1904 289
1908 294.5
1912 299.25
1920 281.5
1924 293.125
1928 304.75
1932 300.75
1936 317.3125
1948 308
1952 298
1956 308.25
1960 319.75
1964 317.75
1968 350.5
1972 324.5
1976 328.5
1980 336.25
1984 336.25
1988 343.25
1992 342.5
1996 334.65
2000 336.6
2004 338.2
9-10
AP Statistics – Investigative Task – Long Jump Chapter 9
Components Comments
Think
Creates a good linear model:
o uses a subset of the data, perhaps avoiding
years following wars, using only recent
jumps, and/or eliminating outliers
o justifies modeling decisions, (including
historical observations)
Show
Visual: The scatterplot…
o has correct explanatory/response
o is accurate and clearly labeled
o shows the regression line
Numerical: The analysis…
o has correct r-squared
o has correct slope and y-intercept
o uses the proper notation
Tell
Interprets the Model:
o evaluates the model w/residuals
o describes trend in distances
o interprets the slope in context
o distinguishes model from reality
Makes a Prediction for 2008:
o makes correct prediction from model
o expresses caution based on r-sq
o expresses caution about extrapolation
Components are scored as Essentially correct, Partially correct, or Incorrect
1: The Model:
E – Creates a good model; makes sound and well-supported decisions
P – Model is somewhat flawed, or decisions are not supported
I – Uses the data for all the Olympics
2: Graphs and Statistics: correct scatterplot, numerical values, equation, and notation
E – Each category has all 3 requirements correct
P – Each category has at least 2 of the requirements correct
I – Too many errors in graph, statistics, or notation
3: Interpretation of Model: discusses residuals, trend, and slope (in context of model)
E – All 4 requirements P – 2 or 3 requirements I – None or 1
4: Prediction: makes correct prediction with proper caution
E – All 3 requirements P – 2 requirements I – None or 1
Scoring
• E’s count 1 point, P’s are 1/2
• AP score = sum of 4 components; rounding based on quality of partially correct work
• Grade: A = 4, B = 3, etc., +/- based on rounding. (3.5 rounded to 3 is a B+)
Name _______________________________ AP Score ____ Grade ____

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