Assume you are the captain of a warship California and you are
battling against a British battleship Prince of Wales. The head of
your crew informs you the following statistics: First, while a
warship takes 10 shots at a target, it takes at least 4 shots to sink
it. Second, a warship has an average of hitting with 20% of its
shots in the long run. So he suggests that you can calculate the
chance that your opponent – Prince of Wales may sink your boat.
Do you think it is reasonable to just adopt the above figures to
your calculation? Or should you make some further assumptions
and hence make adjustments on them?
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