Probability

1. For the network shown in the attached file, calculate the following:

a. Expected duration (µ)

b. Variance (sµ2 )

c. Standard Deviation (sµ)

d. Probability that the network can be completed in 50 days or less.

2. N/A

3. A project is in its 50th week and has an actual cost of $300,000 for the work performed to date. The budgeted cost of that work is $400,000. It expected to have completed $500,000 worth of work by this time. The budget for the entire project is $1,000,000. What is the:

a. CV

b. SV

c. CPI

d. EAC (provide two possible values. Show the formulas you use in calculating each)

4. You have prepared an initial estimate of $2,000,000 to develop a software application for your organization. However, after you think about it a while, you vaguely remember from an old course you took at UMUC that estimates aren’t the same as reality. So, you do a bit more analysis and come up with the following table. How much reserve should you add to your initial estimate in order to have a 90% chance of success?

Activity Most Likely Optimistic Pessimistic

Labor $1,000,000 $800,000 $1,500,000

Commercial SW and Licenses $500,000 $450,000 $550,000

Subcontracts $500,000 $450,000 $600,000

The estimates include all applicable burdens. All activities have assumed a triangular distribution. You may use any method you require, but show your work in an attachment.

5. You are preparing a project to lay fiber optic cable. The first task is to mobilize the team. You estimate this will take one week and cost $3000. The second task is to lay the cable. This will take three weeks and will cost $45,000. The total length of the cable is 15 miles. The last task, which will take one week, is to terminate and test the cable. You budget $5000 for this. At the end of the first week, you have completed mobilization, but it cost a total of $4500. At the end of the third week, you have completed five miles of cable at a total cost of $28,000 (installation only). It takes you a total of 10 weeks to complete the entire project, for a total cost of $65,000.

a. At the end of week 1:

i. What is your SPI?

ii. What is your CPI?

iii. What is your EAC?

b. At the end of week 3:

i. What is your SPI?

ii. What is your CPI?

iii. What is your EAC?

c. At the end of the project:

i. What is your SPI?

ii. What is your CPI?

iii. What is your EAC?

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