Credit risk and Profitability

You are required to use 2 Australian commercial banks, you may choose to use the same
banks as you used in Group Assignment 1 or different banks . The time period of analysis is
from 2008 to 2010.
Part I. Loan Composition and Credit Risk (50% of marks)
Compare and discuss loan composition and loan credit (default) risk of the banks
Below are some considerations you might like to make (this is not an exhaustive guide )2
0 Loan composition
0 Compare the types of loans made by each bank, & analyse how these loans
changed over the sample period
0 Consider the types of loans made by industry, geographical location and the
maturity of the loans for each bank
0 Have the banks increased or reduced lending in some areas or industries?
0 Credit Risk
0 Use different methods of measuring credit risk (quality) of loans for each bank,
such as
I Provisions for loan impairment to total (gross) loans
I Loan impairment expense to provision for loan impairment
0 How has credit risk (quality) of loans changed for each bank over the sample
period?
0 Compare & discuss changes in loan composition & credit risk for each bank over the
sample period
Hint: Details of loan, bill discounted and other receivables (including advances ) composition
and provisions for loan impairment (and other proxies for credit risk) are usually provided in
the notes to the financial statements. You may need to read through annual reports for a
comprehensive understanding of the strategies & considerations made by the banks during the
sample period.
Part II. Credit risk and Profitability (50% of marks)
Compare and discuss the implications of credit risk for profitability of the banks
0 Some relevant measures you may like to consider:
I Provisions for loan impairment to total operating income
I Provisions for loan impairment to pre-provisional net income (net profit)
or
I Loan impairment expense to net income (net profit) before loan
impairment expense
0 Compare and discuss how the banks’ loan profitability has been affected by the loan
composition and credit risk
o How has loan profitability changed for each bank over the sample period?
0 Why do you think this has changed?
0 Did market conditions have a large impact on the banks profitability and loan
composition?

Part II. Credit risk and Profitability  (1300 words)

Compare the two Australian Banks, Commonwealth Bank (CBA) and Westpac Corporation (WBC)

Introduction
Define credit risk

Compare and discuss the implications of credit risk for profitability of the bank.
How has loan profitability changed?
Why has this changed?
Market conditions (level of default)
Change in bank structure
Financial regulations

Use ratios (define each ratio?)
Provisions for loan impairment to total operating income
Provisions for loan impairment to to pre-provisional net income
Impairment expense to net income before loan expense
Net income ratio (change of loan profitability)
Leveragea borrower’s leverage or capital structure – the ratio of debt to equity- affects the probability of its default. Because large amount of debt such as bonds and loans increase the borrower’s interest charges and pose a significant claim on its cash flows.
Default Level
RAROC (adjusted) = RAROC adjusted (One-year net income on a loan)/(Loan (asset)risk or capital at risk )
 a return adjusted for risk
 used to evaluate (and price) credit risk based on market data
 Loan will only be approved if the RAROC is sufficiently high relative to a benchmark ROE

WESTPAC CORPORATION (WBC)                          COMMONWEALTH BANK (CBA)
$M      $M      $M      $M              $M      $M      $M      $M      $M
LOAN CLASSIFICATION     2007    2008    2009    2010         LOAN CLASSIFICATION     2006    2007    2008    2009    2010
Australia                          australia
overdrafts      3,045      2,973      3,880      3,550          overdrafts          16,155      20,047      17,829      19,924
credit card outstandings      7,310      7,536      9,429      9,596          housing Loans          163,839      186,926      261,504      292,140
overnight and at call money market loans      280      297      231      223          Credit Card Outstandigns          7,185      7,555      9,055      10,200
acceptance of finance      21,847      24,499      49,103      43,672          Lease financing          4,532      4,239      4,572      4,657
term loans      184,160      214,541      339,153      366,076          bilsl discounted          3,640      5,868      10,936      14,379
finance leases      4,345      4,900      5,468      5,029          term loans          68,577      83,431      107,337      101,794
margin lending      4,939      3,833      3,900      3,521          other lending           1,339      1,076      1,616      1,288
other      3,105      4,293      4,907      2,287          other securities          11      13      524      564
total aus      229,031      262,872      416,071      433,954          total aus          265,278      309,155      413,373      444,946

overseas (NZ)                          overseas
overdrafts      1,254      1,200      1,122      926          Overdrafts          1,605      716      744      652
credit card outstannding      937      885      969      951          Housing Loans          28,931      28,817      30,702      31,433
overnight and at call money market loans      1,341      1,787      1,356      1,175          Credit Card Outstandigns          533      538      573      589
term loans      42,571      38,558      42,307      40,397          Lease financing          531      563      541      570
other      735      897      326      336          bilsl discounted          33
total other overseas      5,780      4,388      5,692      4,627          term loans          20,027      23,916      27,079      23,052
redeemable preference share financing          1,194      1,194      744
total os      52,618      47,715      51,772      48,412          other lending           183      25      16      27
other securities          303      300
total os          53,340      56,069      60,399      56,323

less
provisions for imparment          1,233      1,713      4,924      5,428
unearned income          1,920      2,229      2,217      2,382
3,153      3,942      7,141      7,810

net           315,465      361,282      466,631      493,459

CREDIT QUALITY     2007    2008    2009    2010         CREDIT QUALITY     2006    2007    2008    2009    2010
total                          australia
not due not impaired      362,297      420,665      560,705      585,352          not due not impaired          259,158      302,156      399,075      428,464
past due but imparied      11,315      13,977      14,339      17,423          past due but imparied          5,722      6,379      10,686      11,861
past due and impaired      539      1,194      3,854      4,659          past due and impaired          398      620      3,612      4,621
total      374,151      435,836      578,898      607,434          total aus          265,278      309,155      413,373      444,946
total impairment      1,369      1,967      4,392      4,723
os
carry value      372,782      433,869      574,506      602,711          not due not impaired          51,291      53,440      56,918      53,320
past due but imparied          2,026      2,566      2,904      2,513
past due and impaired          23      63      577      490
total os          53,340      56,069      60,399      56,323

total          318,618      365,224      473,772      501,269

PROVISIONS     2007    2008    2009    2010         PROVISIONS     2006    2007    2008    2009    2010
total provisions      1,369      1,945      4,384      4,711          total provisions      1,217      1,233      1,713      4,924      5,453
total charge          931      3,238      1,456          total charge      398      434      930      3,048      2,379
prov for impairment loan      406      594
collect prov %gross loan      0      0      0      1      1
impairment on loan/avg loan      0      0      0      0          total prov/total charge      3      3      2      2      2

LOANS WRITTEN OFF     2007    2008    2009    2010         LOANS WRITTEN OFF     2006    2007    2008    2009    2010
australia      355      394      1,550      1,202          australia
nz      6      75      350      146          sovereign
other os      10      2      23      3          agriculture      8      1      3      2      10
total      –        –        –        –            bank & financial      1          5      110      383
real estate      11      21      24      40      167
presonal      388      408      364      496      651
IMPAIRMENT     2007    2008    2009    2010         asset financing      42      49      49      58      72
prov for impair (aus)      90      331      1,082      1,300          other comm and ind      36      30      34      255      604
prov for impair (OS-NZ)      22      56      124      270          total      486      509      479      961      1,887
prov for impair (other-OS)      36      26      22      52
overseas
total provisions for impairment      1,558      2,174      4,734      5,061          sovereign
agriculture                      7
bank & financial              4      86      50
real estate              2      22      25
presonal      7      7      13      14      18
asset financing
other comm and ind      4      3      5      60      86
total      11      10      24      182      186

less recovered      127      103      77      73      77
total net impairments      370      416      426      1,070      1,996

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