Managerial Decision Making

SCENARIO
Upcycle is a successful company with two stores (A and B) and buys old furniture to
renovate it and sells it on. It has always been a family business, but the owner is retiring
and has passed management of the company down to his son who is new to the furniture
renovation business. For each store, you have been provided historic sales data (in
pounds). The new manager wants to consider the viability of each store and from his
first look at the data, he believes the sales for Store A appear stationary whilst for Store
B do not. You have been asked to carry out the following forecasting analysis, which the
new manager will use to review both stores.

STORE A: (Upcycle Data.xls Store A, with data from Jan 2012 to Dec 2014)
1. Carry out diagnostic analysis to determine whether the manager’s belief that the
data has no trend is reasonable. Critique the methods used to present a body of
evidence.

2. Using the 36 months of historic data, build models to apply the following updating
schemes, making sure you justify any values that you introduce as the decision
maker (eg: k, weights, alpha). Generate a forecast for month 37 for each scheme
and include this in your report.
? Naïve Forecasting
? Updating the Mean
? Moving average of length k
? Either Weighted Moving Average of length k OR Exponential Smoothing

3. Critically evaluate the methods used in task 2 and use this to recommend which
one technique the manager should adopt to forecast data in the short-term. In
your discussion make sure you explain why you have selected it over the other
methods.

4. Discuss what other factors the new manager take into consideration when
considering forecasting this sales data over the long-term.

STORE B: (Upcycle Data.xls Store B, with data from Jan 2013 to Dec 2014)
5. Using the 24 months of historic data, construct an appropriate model and provide
a forecast for month 25. (You do not need to complete any diagnostic analysis or
model evaluation for this store).

6. What factors should the manager take into consideration when modelling the data
for Store B?

PLACE THIS ORDER OR A SIMILAR ORDER WITH US TODAY AND GET AN AMAZING DISCOUNT 🙂