Statistics as Evidence Homework 7: Measuring Presidential Approval – Polling

Statistics as Evidence Homework 7: Measuring Presidential Approval – Polling

Methods and Accuracy

You are to take your own political poll to measure President Obamas Approval

Rating. Your target population is domestic undergraduate Saint Louis University

students. Your sample size will be 20. Your assignment is to design a sampling

method that is unbiased and representative. Remember that as an interviewer you

need to be a neutral tape recorder for your subjects, no matter what your personal

political views are. Here is the exact wording of the question that you need to ask:

“Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as

President?”

Its important that everyone use the same question so we can compare results.

Dont worry if your numbers stray from the 40s. We will expect some outliers due

to random variation. Write up your sampling method and list the results for your

survey of 20 Saint Louis University Students. Be ready to defend your sampling

method for its ability to obtain a representative sample. Keep track of the gender

of your respondents. Be sure to include the date or dates you took your sample. Give

the Presidents approval rating in percentage terms. Write a 300 words to describe

your methods and results.

Visit the Gallup Presidential Approval Center to provide context for your estimate of

Presidential Obamas approval rating. Look at the tab entitled Historical Trend. How

does Obama compare to the other Presidents? Write 250 words.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Approval-Center.aspx

Instead of using just one poll, there is a movement to use multiple polls and average

the results. In addition, even more complex methods have been developed that

takes into account data beyond national polls. There is some reason to believe that

averaging and some of the more complex methods could be more accurate than an

individual poll, however, it is dependent on the quality of the polls that are used to

construct the average. There is some controversy.

Read the following article by Nate Silver formerly of the New York Times. He has

a website that is called 538. His methods are based on his work with baseball

Sabermetrics. Ignore the datedness of the article and read it for the methodology.

(He also has an excellent book that just came out called The Signal and the Noise

if you are looking for a good read.) You may have to set up an account in the New

York Times. You should be able to get this article for free.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/06/magazine/nate-silver-handicaps-2012-

election.html?pagewanted=all

What methods and data does he use in addition to national polls. Write a 250 word

analysis summarizing his methods.

In addition, visit the website RealClearPolitics and investigate their methods.

They are a poll aggregator or averager. The person who runs this website is a

conservative.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/?state=nwa

Write a 250 word analysis summarizing their methods. You may have to dig further.

Do you think we can trust 538 since it is housed in a liberal newspaper like the

New York Times? Why or why not? Can you trust Realclearpolitics since it is run by

a conservative? Why or why not? Construct an argument (which was referenced at

the University of Chicago website on the difference between High School and College

Writing) about the trustworthiness of these two entities. (Compare and contrast.)

Write a 300 word analysis. Remember College Writing!!

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