Number of Marriages

Model the change in marriages in the US from 2000 – 2011 (may want to convert values from 2,190,000 to 2.190 million to use smaller numbers)
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/marriage_divorce_tables.htm
Section III: Exponential Modeling

For this section, write an essay that addresses the answers to the questions below. Everything including calculations is to be typed. This will become section III of

the final project you turn in at the end of the semester.

Use the data set and scatter plot you made for Section I.

1. Find an exponential equation that models the data (add trendline in Excel). Call this equation Y1 and include the value. Print your graph with labeled axes,

and include the graph in your report.

2. Convert your equation Y1 to the form and call this equation Y2.

3. What is the growth or decay factor for Y2?

4. Based on the equation Y2, what is the percent increase/decrease each year/month?

5. Verify that this equation is reasonable by computing the average percent increase for the data set by calculating the percent increase between each pair of

consecutive data points and then finding the average of these values. [You can do this in Excel. If your data starts in B1, then (new – old) / (old) will read: =

(B2-B1) / B1. Drag and drop to fill the rest of the cells. You can then use the function AVERAGE to find the average.]

6. Using both equations Y1 and Y2, find the value 4 years/months after the starting year/month of your data set and interpret what this means in the real

situation. Does this fit with the data you have?

7. Also using equations Y1 and Y2, find the value 10 years/months after the starting year/month of your data set. Do these predictions seem reasonable?

8. Graph Y1 and Y2 on your calculator with your stat plot of the data, and compare the two graphs with your stat plot.

a. Using your answers from #6 and 7 and the graphs, do you think Y1 and Y2 fit your data well or not?

b. Do you think this data is growing or decaying exponentially? In other words, is an exponential function a good model for your data? Explain

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