Business Ethics
Project description
Why does Simon believe that natural resources are not finite and why we do not have to worry about sustainability? In what
way does Simon reflect the Technological Project? Make sure your paper uses the words “technological project”; it is not
enough simply to use the word technology.
CHAPTER 3: CAN THE SUPPLY OF NATURAL RESOURCES – ESPECIALLY ENERGY – REALLY BE INFINITE? YES!
A professor giving a lecture on energy declares that the world will perish in seven billion years’ time because the sun will
then burn out. One of the audience becomes very agitated, asks the professor to repeat what he said, and then, completely
reassured, heaves a sign of relief, “Phew! I thought he said seven million years!”‘ (Sauvy, 1976, p. 251)
[My economic analyses rest on] some principles which are uncommon, and which may seem too refined and subtile for such vulgar
subjects. If false, let them be rejected. But no one ought to enter a prejudice against them, merely because they are out of
the common road.
David Hume, Essays, 1777 (1987), p. 255.
Chapter 2 showed that natural resources, properly defined, cannot be measured. Here I draw the logical conclusion: Natural
resources are not finite. Yes, you read correctly. This chapter shows that the supply of natural resources is not finite in
any economic sense, one reason why their cost can continue to fall indefinitely.
On the face of it, even to inquire whether natural resources are finite seems like nonsense. Everyone “knows” that resources
are finite. And this belief has led many persons to draw unfounded, far-reaching conclusions about the future of our world
economy and civilization. A prominent example is the Limits to Growth group, who open the preface to their 1974 book as
follows.
Most people acknowledge that the earth is finite…. Policy makers generally assume that growth will provide them tomorrow
with the resources required to deal with today’s problems. Recently, however, concern about the consequences of population
growth, increased environmental pollution, and the depletion of fossil fuels has cast doubt upon the belief that continuous
growth is either possible or a panacea.
(Note the rhetorical device embedded in the term “acknowledge” in the first sentence of the quotation. It suggests that the
statement is a fact, and that anyone who does not “acknowledge” it is simply refusing to accept or admit it.) For many
writers on the subject, the inevitable depletion of natural resources is simply not open to question. A political scientist
discussing the relationship of resources to national security refers to “the incontrovertible fact that many crucial
resources are nonrenewable.” A high government energy official says that views that “the world’s oil reserves…are
sufficient to meet the worlds’ needs” are “fatuities.” The idea that resources are finite in supply is so pervasive and
influential that the President’s 1972 Commission on Population Growth and the American Future (the most recent such report)
based its policy recommendations squarely upon this assumption. Right at its beginning the report asked,
What does this nation stand for and where is it going? At some point in the future, the finite earth will not satisfactorily
accommodate more human beings – nor will the United States…. It is both proper and in our best interest to participate
fully in the worldwide search for the good life, which must include the eventual stabilization of our numbers.
The assumption of finiteness indubitably misleads many scientific forecasters because their conclusions follow inexorably
from that assumption. From the Limits to Growth team again, this time on food: “The world model is based on the fundamental
assumption that there is an upper limit to the total amount of food that can be produced annually by the world’s agricultural
system.” The idea of finite supplies of natural resources led even a mind as powerful as Bertrand Russell’s into error. Here
we’re not just analyzing casual opinions; all of us necessarily hold many casual opinions that are ludicrously wrong simply
because life is far too short for us to think through even a small fraction of the topics that we come across. But Russell,
in a book ironically titled The Impact of Science on Society, wrote much of a book chapter on the subject. He worried that
depletion would cause social instability.
Raw materials, in the long run, present just as grave a problem as agriculture. Cornwall produced tin from Phoenician times
until very lately; now the tin of Cornwall is exhausted… Sooner or later all easily accessible tin will have been used up,
and the same is true of most raw materials. The most pressing, at the moment, is oil… The world has been living on capital,
and so long as it remains industrial it must continue to do so. This is one inescapable though perhaps rather distant source
of stability in a scientific society.
Nor is it only non-economists who fall into this error (though economists are in less danger here because they are accustomed
to expect economic adjustment to shortages). John Maynard Keynes’s contemporaries thought that he was the cleverest person of
the century. But on the subject of natural resources – and about population growth, as we shall see later – he was both
ignorant of the facts and stupid (an adjective I never use except for the famous) in his dogmatic logic. In his world-
renowned The Economic Consequences of the Peace, published just after World War I, Keynes wrote that Europe could not supply
itself and soon would have nowhere to turn:
[B]y 1914 the domestic requirements of the United States for wheat were approaching their production, and the date was
evidently near when there would be an exportable surplus only in years of exceptionally favorable harvest… Europe’s claim
on the resources of the New World was becoming precarious; the law of diminishing returns was at last reasserting itself, and
was making it necessary year by year for Europe to offer a greater quantity of other commodities to obtain the same amount of
bread… If France and Italy are to make good their own deficiencies in coal from the output of Germany, then Northern
Europe, Switzerland, and Austria…must be starved of their supplies.
All these assertions of impending scarcity turned out to be wildly in error. So much for Keynes’s wisdom as an economist and
a seer into the future. Millions of plain American farmers had a far better grasp of the agricultural reality in the 1920s
than did Keynes. This demonstrates that one needs to know history as well as technical facts, and not just be a clever
reasoner.
Just as in Keynes’s day, the question of finiteness is irrelevant to any contemporary considerations, as the joke at the head
of the chapter suggests. Nevertheless, we must discuss the topic because of its centrality in so much contemporary doomsday
thinking.
The argument in this chapter is very counter- intuitive, as are most of the ideas in this book. Indeed, science is most
useful when it is counter-intuitive. But when scientific ideas are sufficiently far from “common sense,” people will be
uncomfortable with science, and they will prefer other explanations, as in this parable:
Imagine for the moment that you are a chieftain of a primitive tribe, and that I am explaining to you why water gradually
disappears from an open container. I offer the explanation that the water is comprised of a lot of invisible, tiny bits of
matter moving at enormous speeds. Because of their speed, the tiny bits escape from the surface and fly off into the air.
They go undetected because they are so small that they cannot be seen. Because this happens continuously, eventually all of
the tiny, invisible bits fly into the air and the water disappears. Now I ask you: “Is that a rational scientific
explanation?” Undoubtedly, you will say yes. However, for a primitive chief, it is not believable. The believable explanation
is that the spirits drank it. But because the ideas in this chapter are counter-intuitive does not mean
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