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Question: How does your range of valuations (as per attached) compare the valuations based on the recent movements of the Alibaba share price? What do the current share price movements tell you about the marketís estimations of Alibabaís prospects?
provide all explanations and calculation as detail as possible. Thanks!
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b) Study the attached valuation spreadsheet. Input your predicted revenue growth rates and profit
margins to come up with your valuation of Alibaba. You could use a range of values and also do a
sensitivity
analysis.
(Note that the results in this section will be expressed in
US$)
In order to estimate the revenue growth rates of Alibaba for the next ten years, it is necessary to
analyze its performance in the past. The company has experienced a significant ex
pansion during the
last few years; it grew 68% in 2012, 72% in 2013, dropping to 52% in 2014 and to 45% in 2015. Even
when the growth rate has not been maintained, it is still higher than the global average (19.34%) and
the US average (6.60%). Alibaba Grou
p is outperforming similar companies in its sector.
Alibaba Group has invested heavily during the last few years in different market sectors, finding
opportunities, and therefore increasing its portfolio and its diversity. We believe that the company
will
obtained the results from these investments and acquisitions within this period. In addition, this
group operates mainly in China, country that is currently growing in a higher rate than the average.
Moreover, as the company states in its annual report, th
ey will probably not pay out dividends during
this period, being able to use them to reinvest to improve their current businessís results. Lastly, from
the rapid growth that the company has had during the last years and its youth, we can state that
Alibaba
Group finds itself in its growth stage, which means that it will continue increasing, probably in
a higher rate than other companies from his sector. But it also means that it will reach the mature
point at some point, where its growth will be more stable
.
But will this success be sustainable in the future?
There could be both internal and external factors
that could change during the next ten years and can affect the performance of the company. Regarding
internal factors, we believe that Alibaba Group wi
ll continue performing exceptionally well during the
next ten years, because of the leadership position that they have gained in the market place, because
of the ëecosystemí they have created, and because of the revenue from the previous investments and
ac
quisition that they have done. Some of them required significant capital (Internet TV companies,
tracking system for medical products, movie producer and so on), and therefore, we expect a
significant revenue from them during this period. We believe they w
ill continue investing in
opportunities in order to expand their business, but this will probably be done at a lower rate.
On the other hand, regarding external factors, we believe that the company performance could be
affected by the volatility of the
market, as comparable companies have also suffered in the
past
(Alibaba Group Holding Limited, 2015)
. Similarly, the main market where it operates, China, has
not reached the expected levels of economy growth during 2015, which could be a significant
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downt
urn in Alibabaís results if these results do not improve. Moreover, the Trans
–
Pacific Partnership
(TPP) agreement recently signed (2015) by the United States, Canada, Mexico, Japan, and Australia
among others, but not including China, will completely chang
e the trading patterns over the Pacific. It
is still early to say if this will affect the revenue and performance of Alibaba Group, but it will definitely
influence their strategy, operations and competitors.
These factors, among others, will vary the reve
nue growth of the group during the next ten years.
However, during the last few years, it has been demonstrated how the company has quickly adjusted
to market needs, and we believe this is one of the main competencies that will allow Alibaba Group
to conti
nue outperforming other companies in the sector.
From this analysis, we believe that Alibaba revenue growth rates are going to continue increasing
during the next ten years, but at lower rate than in the past. We estimate that the average rate of
growth fo
r
the
next
four
years will be 35%.
However,
after these
four
years, we believe that the
revenue growth
will decrease
gradually
to
reach 15
%
by the seventh year, value that will be
maintained until the end of the period analyzed.
It must be noted that altho
ugh these rates are
considerably lower than the
current
growth rate, hey are still higher than the US average values
(6.60%).
Apart from these values, other inputs included in the valuation spreadsheet are the following:
Concept
Value
Notes*
Compounded
annual revenue growth
rate over next 5 years
35%
Revenue this year (2015)
12293m
In US$
Operating income this year (2015)
3732m
In US$
Effective tax rate
19.80%
Marginal Tax rate
22.34%
Average industry value (US online retail)
Target pre
–
tax operating margin (EBIT as
% of sales in year 10)
30.36%
(=Revenue/operating income)
Assuming that pre
–
tax operating margin
will not change over the next 10 years
Sales to capital ratio
4.78
US average value used
Risk free rate
1.80%
U.S.
Department of Treasury, 2016
Cost of capital
9.65%
US average value used
In stable growth, company cost of capital
8%
*
All translations of Renminbi into U.S. dollars were made at RMB6.1990 to US$1.00
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